Geographical Distribution Simulation of Actinidia deliciosa in China and Influence of Climate Change
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    Abstract:

    In order to understand the effect of climate change on geographical distribution of Actinidia deliciosa, the distribution change trend of A. deliciosa in China under current and future climate scenarios was predicted by using Maxent model. The results showed that the AUC values of distribution models established under current and future climate scenarios were all excellent. Under the present climatic conditions, the potential suitable zone for A. deliciosa were mainly distributed from north latitude 22° to 38°, and east longitude from 96° to 122°, with total area was 3.367 9×106 km2. The high suitable zone was in Qinba Mountain, eastern Sichuan Basin, eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Wuling-Wushan Mountain and Wuyi Mountain. Area of high suitable zone would decrease, while that of medium suitable zone would increase under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The mean centers will move to low latitude area in the futre under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and the centroid under RCP8.5scenario has the longest moving trajectory and the largest change range among three climate scenarios. So, the prefect forecast of Maxent model has important guiding significance for optimizing A. deliciosa planting pattern in China.

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王茹琳,文刚,李庆,王明田,郭翔,林姗,姜淦,沈沾红.美味猕猴桃地理分布模拟与气候变化影响分析[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2018,26(4):335~345

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History
  • Received:November 06,2017
  • Revised:January 14,2018
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 20,2018
  • Published: