Abstract:In order to understand the potential distribution of six subtropical evergreen Quercus species in south-west China under future climate scenarios, based on the distribution data, physiological and ecological characteristics of six Quercus trees in Southwest China, including Q. guyavaefolia, Q. aquifolioides, Q. rehderiana, Q. semecarpifolia, Q. senescens and Q. dolicholepis, environmental data and future the 2070s (2061—2080) climate scenario data (SSPs126, SSPs245, SSPs585), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology were used to analyze the impact of future climate change on the potential distribution of these tree species. The results showed that the AUC values of the MaxEnt model for all six Quercus species were more than 0.9, indicating high model simulation accuracy. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of six Quercus speciesincludedtemperature seasonality, annual precipitation, altitude, minimum temperature of coldest month and slope. Consequently, these tree species were mostly suitable for distributing in warm and humid mountainous areas with minimal seasonality temperature changes. Compared to the other three tree species, Q. aquifolioide, Q. rehderiana and Q. semecarpifolia were more suitable for growing in middle and high mountain areas with lower temperatures and slightly greater seasonal temperature changes. The potential suitable areas for these six Quercus species were southwest China, as well as western of central China, western of south China and southern of northwest China. The high suitable areas were mainly located in southern Sichuan and northwestern Yunnan. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of main subtropical evergreen Quercus trees in southwest China would expand to the northwest as a whole.
