Abstract:Based on the known distribution and 20 environmental factors, the potential distribution pattern of genus Paphiopedilum was simulated by using MaxEnt model under two different sharing economy scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the present (1970—2000) and the future (2081—2100). The contribution rate of climate factors was analyzed to find out the dominant climate factors affecting species distribution and their variation range. The results showed that the most suitable distribution areas of the genus were located in southeast Yunnan, southwest Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Guangdong and northern Hainan. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the genus were annual precipitation, annual temperature range and precipitation in the driest season. With global warming, the suitable area had a tendency to expand northward and northwestward, gradually extending to the northwest subtropical direction. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the high suitability area showed a large shrinkage. In the future climate scenarios, the distribution patterns of different populations are not consistent, and their distribution patterns respond to climate change trends. Therefore, different conservation strategies are proposed for species with different distribution trends.
