Abstract:Based on the general survey of Juglans regia in Xinjiang Wild Walnut Nature Reserve, the diameter level structure was used instead of age structure, the static life table of population was compiled by smoothing technique, and the population dynamics was predicted by time series model, so as to obtain the age level structure and dynamics of J. regia. The results showed that the middle age class was dominant in different slope directions, and the age structure was spindle-shaped with two small ends and big middle. Although the dynamic index Vpi of age structure of the four slope populations was greater than 0, the maximum was only 19.10%, and Vpiʹ was extremely low, the maximum is 1.12%, the growth trend of J. regia population on sunny slope was the highest and the anti-interference ability and the population stability was the strongest, whereas the semi-sunny slope showed the lowest growth trend, the worst anti-interference ability and stability. There were multiple death peaks in all slope populations. The highest peak was at 15 age class on sunny slope, 15 and 18 age class on semi-sunny slope, and 9 age class on shady slope and semi-shady slope. The survival curves were closer to Deevey-II type. The number of individuals at middle age would decline after 2, 5 and 10 age classes in the future, while the number of old individuals would increase. Therefore, it was very critical for the protection of cespitose J. regia of young individuals.
