Abstract:It is of great significance to quantify the impacts of future climate fluctuation on the potential suitable area of Liriodendron chinense and to analyze the climatic factors affecting its distributions, so that to better protect its genetic resources. The Maxent model and ArcGIS software, combined with geographic distribution data, are used to predict the distribution of current and future (2061-2080) potential suitable areas of L. chinense, the distribution of potential suitable areas of L. chinense under future climate fluctuations, and the main climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of L. chinense were also discussed. The results showed that Maxent model was a good choice when applying to predict the suitable distribution areas of L. chinense due to its high accuracy, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the working characteristic curve (ROC) of subjects is greater than 0.9. The geographic distribution of L. chinense would change with four potential scenarios of carbon emission (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) in future. The suitable area of L. chinense increase significantly under the condition of RCP4.5, which was significantly reduced under the condition of RCP 8.5, especially in Guizhou and the border of Chongqing, Guizhou and Hunan. Therefore, with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration, the suitable distribution area of L. chinense will increase at first and then decrease, while the distribution geographic center will keep unchanged. The three variables of monthly mean diurnal range, precipitation of wettest and driest quarters are the main factors affecting the geographic distribution of L. chinense with the total contribution rate of 77.1%.
