Abstract:Predicting the potential geographic distribution of a species and its response to climate change is of great significance for the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable development of ecosystems. Phoebe sheareri is widely used in building furniture because of its heavy weight, hardness, and uniform structure. However, because it has a weak natural ability to regenerate and because unprecedented damage has occurred in its natural habitat, wild germplasm resources are getting exhausted. In order to understand the effect of climate on distribution of P. sheareri, its suitable distribution region was simulated by using Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), the main environmental factors were analyzed, and the changes in distribution area under four climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that P. sheareri was suitable for distribution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south provinces. Annual precipitation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, relative humidity and sunshine duration from June to August were the main factors affecting the distribution of P. sheareri, and these factors contributed 84.3% of the variation. Under climate change scenarios, by both Maxent and GARP models, the suitable area in Guangdong, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Hainan would decrease significantly for this species, while that in central Shaanxi, southern Henan, eastern Anhui, and northern Jiangsu would increase. Therefore, under climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat would expand geographically to the north. These should provide a useful reference for the conservation and cultivation of Phoebe sheareri.
