Dynamics of Potential Distribution of Cyclobalanopsis Forest in Guizhou Province of China under Global Climate Change

Abstract:

In order to understand the potential distribution characters of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province, based on the current distribution data, and combined with current climate data and future climate change scenario (RCP8.5 scenario, 2070-2099), the Maxent potential distribution modeling was established to predict the changes of potential distribution of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province. The results showed that the dominant climatic factors affecting its potential distribution were mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), min. temperature of the coldest month (bio6) and annual precipitation (bio12). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, potential habitat area of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou would increase than that under current climatic conditions, there were 19 419 km² for moderate suitable habitat and 9 944 km² for high suitable habitat, respectively. The mean altitude of moderate suitable habitat would increase 126 m, and 85 m for high suitable habitat. In general, Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province wouldn't be sensitive to the global climate change.

Key words:Global climate change;Maxent model;Cyclobalanopsis forest;Potential habitat