Effect of Climate Change in Future on Geographical Distribution of Widespread Quercus acutissima and Analysis of Dominant Climatic Factors

Abstract:

To understand the potential distribution characteristics of Quercus acutissima and its response to future climatic change, the Maxent model was used to simulate potential distribution under present climatic condition, and predict changes in its distribution under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios in future, and major factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. The results showed that Maxent had relatively good predicting ability for the distribution of Q. acutissima with AUC value more than 0.95. Under the current climatic condition, Q. acutissima could be widely distributed in southern China and some provinces of northern China, such as Shannxi, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Beijing and Liaoning, as well as Japan, Korea peninsula, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, with a total suitable area about 11.57×10⁵km². Under future climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the suitable area of Q. acutissima predicted by Maxent model will expand northward and southwestward, increasing ca. (2.49~3.02)×10⁵km²;the loss of suitable area mainly occurred in southern Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces and eastern Myanmar. The dominant factors influencing the distribution of Q. acutissima were precipitation of the warmest quarter, isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the driest quarter, with contribution rates of 54.2%, 13.7%, 8.8%, 7.8%, respectively. These would provide a reference for studying the cultivation and conservation of Q. acutissima.

Key words:Maxent;Quercus acutissima;Climatic factor;Geographical distribution;Suitable distribution area