Potential Geographical Distribution of Polygonatum kingianum and Its Climatic Suitability Analysis

Abstract:

In order to understand the suitable distribution zone of Polygonatum kingianum, the potential geographic distribution of P. kingianum under current conditions in China was simulated by using Maxent model, and the suitable climatic condition for introduction and cultivation was anlayzed. The results showed that the AUC of prediction model ranged from 0.974 to 0.980, showing Maxent model had good predictive ability. The potential suitable distribution zone of P. kingianum was mainly located in Southwest China. The high suitable area was about 81.34×10⁴ km², accounting for 88.24% of distribution area in China. The largest high suitable region was in Yunnan with 19.96×10⁴ km², following Sichuan with 5.49×10⁴ km². The altitude distribution of 75% suitable region was under 2 492 m, and the altitude above 3 400 m was not suitable for growing of P. kingianum. Based on cumulative contribution rate of model and Jackknife analysis, the main climatic factors inhibiting the distribution of P. kingianum were minimum temperature of the coldest month, minimum temperature in July, solar radiation from March to August, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of April and precipitation from September to November. Therefore, it was suggested that subtropical zones with altitude from 1 400 to 2 100 m were the most suitable areas for P. kingianum.