Modeling the Geographical Distribution Pattern and Climatic Limited Factors of Cerasus schneideriana

Abstract:

To understand the relationship between geographical distribution pattern of Cerasus schneideriana and its climatic limited factors,the DIVA-GIS software and BIOCLIM model were applied to predict the present and future potential spatial areas on the basis of actual distribution points.The results showed that the actual distributions of C.schneideriana covered 6 provinces of east China,including Zhejiang,Fujian,Anhui,Jiangxi,Guangxi and Hunan.The natural distribution core area located in mountain areas of Zhejiang-Fujian border,and the north boundary arrived at Zhejiang-Anhui border.Under future climate change situation (CCM3),the probability of potential areas of C.schneideriana would increase,and had a tendency to the north expansion.The principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that the annual precipitation (bio12),precipitation of the driest quarter (bio6),precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) and temperature seasonality (bio4) were the dominant factors for geographical distribution of C.schneideriana.The frequency histograms further showed the factor’s optimum range were 1503~2003 mm,604~951 mm,528~791 mm and 601~872(SD^*100),respectively.Evaluation by the ROC curve proved the BIOCLIM model predicted the distribution accurately (AUC=0.998) and reliably.Therefore,these revealed that C.schneideriana were suited to live in north subtropical region of China,with warm and humid condition,water and heat were the two key climatic factors to the distribution pattern.

Key words:Cerasus schneideriana;Geographical distribution;Climatic limited factor;BIOCLIM model;Prediction of potential distribution