气候变化对5种植物分布的潜在影响

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of 5 Plants in China

摘要:

利用CART(分类和回归树Classification and regression tree)模型，采用A2和B2气候情景，模拟分析了气候变化对观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)、鹅掌楸(Liriodendron chinense)、独叶草( Kingdonia uniflora)、草苁蓉(Boschniakia rossica)和刺五加(Acanthopanax senticosus)分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果表明：与目前适宜分布范围相比，气候发生变化后，观光木的分布范围变化不大，其它植物则缩小；观光木的新适宜与总适宜分布范围扩大，而其它植物缩小；草丛蓉和刺五加的目前适宜、新适宜及总适宜分布范围缩小幅度较大，鹅掌楸和独叶草次之；观光木和鹅掌楸向目前适宜分布区北部区域扩展，独叶草向西南区域扩展，草丛蓉和刺五加的适宜范围在2081~2100年会散失。气候变化下，这些植物的适宜分布范围随年降水量和年均气温的变化不一致，观光木的目前适宜、独叶草的新适宜及总适宜分布范围与年降水量和年均气温，以及草苁蓉的分布范围与降水量的相关性不显著(P>0.05)。这些植物的空间分布格局将随气候变化而发生变化。

Abstract:

The effects of climate change on distributions of 5 species, such as Tsoongiodendron odorum, Liriodendron chinese, Kingdonia uniflora, Boschniakia rossica and Acanthopanax senticosus in China were analyzed using CART (classification and regression tree) model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results showed that the current distributions of these plants except of T. odorum would decrease under climate change, and the new or total distribution region of T. odorum would increase, while those of other plants decrease. And the reducetions of the current, new or total distribution region of B. rossica and A. senticosus are the highest, then were L. chinese and K. uniflora. T. odorum and L. chinese would distribute towards north of current distribution regions, while K. uniflora towards southwest, and B. rossica and A. senticosus would dissipate at the period of 2081~2100. Moreover, the changes in distribution of these plants inconsistent with those in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. There were no significant relation (P>0.05) between the annual mean air temperature, precipitation in China and current distribution of T. odorum, also with new or total distribution region of K. uniflora, and did not between the distribution of B. rossica and annual precipitation in China (P>0.05). It indicated that the spatial distribution pattern of these species would change with climate changes.