美味猕猴桃地理分布模拟与气候变化影响分析

Geographical Distribution Simulation of Actinidia deliciosa in China and Influence of Climate Change

摘要:

为了解气候变化对美味猕猴桃（Actinidia deliciosa）地理分布的影响，结合气候情景，采用Maxent预测美味猕猴桃的适生区的变化趋势。结果表明，基准气候和未来情景下构建的美味猕猴桃分布模型的AUC值均达到极好的标准。基准气候条件下，美味猕猴桃在中国的适生区为22°~38° N，96°~122° E，总面积为3.367 9×10⁶km²，高适生区位于秦岭-巴山、四川盆地东部、云贵高原东部、武陵山-巫山、武夷山脉。RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，美味猕猴桃在中国的高适生区面积将显著减少，中适生区面积则呈增加趋势，两种情景下高、中质心均向偏南或低纬度方向移动，RCP8.5情景下质心的迁移轨迹最长，变动范围最大。Maxent模型的准确预测对于优化猕猴桃产业结构具有重要指导意义。

Abstract:

In order to understand the effect of climate change on geographical distribution of Actinidia deliciosa, the distribution change trend of A. deliciosa in China under current and future climate scenarios was predicted by using Maxent model. The results showed that the AUC values of distribution models established under current and future climate scenarios were all excellent. Under the present climatic conditions, the potential suitable zone for A. deliciosa were mainly distributed from north latitude 22° to 38°, and east longitude from 96° to 122°, with total area was 3.367 9×10⁶ km². The high suitable zone was in Qinba Mountain, eastern Sichuan Basin, eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Wuling-Wushan Mountain and Wuyi Mountain. Area of high suitable zone would decrease, while that of medium suitable zone would increase under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The mean centers will move to low latitude area in the futre under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and the centroid under RCP8.5scenario has the longest moving trajectory and the largest change range among three climate scenarios. So, the prefect forecast of Maxent model has important guiding significance for optimizing A. deliciosa planting pattern in China.