海南热带雨林国家公园金钟藤空间格局和环境因子分析

Spatial Pattern and Environmental Factor Analysis of Merremia boisiana in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park

摘要:

金钟藤(Merremia boisiana)是海南岛上一种具灾变特性的本土藤本植物，近年来在海南热带雨林国家公园内迅速扩散，严重威胁了当地生态系统的稳定。为分析关键环境因子对金钟藤发生的影响，该研究通过实地调查，分析金钟藤在海南热带雨林国家公园的空间分布格局，建立环境驱动因子与金钟藤发生概率的预测模型。结果表明，金钟藤在五指山片区危害最为严重，空间核密度呈现不均匀的聚集特征，且发生区域表现出正向空间自相关(P<0.01)。其主要集中在人类活动频繁的区域，如人工林、次生林林缘和道路边缘，发生最为严重的海拔范围为300~900 m。此外，随机森林模型表明，距道路的距离和海拔是影响金钟藤发生的主要环境因子。Logistic回归分析结果表明，距道路距离、海拔、距人工林距离和距生态游憩点距离是影响金钟藤发生的重要环境因子(P<0.01)。金钟藤的扩散与人类活动密切相关，尤其在生产和旅游活动密集的区域，建议加强该区域的监测和防控措施以防止其进一步扩散。

Abstract:

Merremia boisiana, a native vine with catastrophic characteristics, is rapidly spreading in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park in recent years, posing a serious threat to the stability of the local ecosystem. To analyze the influence of key environmental factors on the occurrence of M. boisiana, the spatial distribution pattern of M. boisiana in the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park was analyzed after a field investigation and established a predictive model of environmental driving factors and the occurrence probability of M. boisiana. The results showed that M. boisiana was most severely harmful in the Wuzhishan area, with an unevenly aggregated spatial kernel density and a positive spatial autocorrelation in the occurrence area (P<0.01). It mainly concentrated in areas with frequent human activities, such as the edges of artificial forests, secondary forests, and roads, and the most severely affected altitude range was 300–900 m. In addition, the random forest model indicated that the distance from roads and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the occurrence of M. boisiana. The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that the distance from roads, altitude, the distance from artificial forests, and the distance from ecological recreation areas were important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of M. boisiana (P<0.01). The spread of M. boisiana is closely related to human activities, especially in areas with intensive production and tourism activities. It is recommended to strengthen monitoring and control measures in these areas to prevent further spread.