基于Maxent模型预测滇黄精在中国的潜在适生区

Prediction of Potential Habitat Area of Polygonatum kingianum in China Based on Maxent Model

摘要:

滇黄精(Polygonatum kingianum)作为云南重要的道地药材之一，因过度采挖，野生资源日益匮乏乃至枯竭，而人工栽培研究相对不足，严重影响到滇黄精资源保护和利用，因而预测其潜在适生区空间变化具有重要意义。该研究利用Maxent模型和地理信息系统，结合63条滇黄精在中国的有效分布记录和15个环境变量，预测滇黄精在中国的潜在适生区。结果表明，受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.971，说明模型预测能力好；滇黄精适生区主要集中在我国云南、贵州、广西、四川、重庆等西南地区；年降水量、最干季降水量、海拔、最冷月份最低温度对滇黄精地理分布起关键作用；未来时期滇黄精适宜生境重心逐渐向贵州方向转移。这为滇黄精就地、迁地保护及人工高效优质栽培基地选址提供理论依据，对滇黄精种质资源保护和利用具有重要的现实意义。

Abstract:

Polygonatum kingianum, as one of the important traditional Chinese medicinal materials in Yunnan, has seen a decline in its wild resources due to over-harvesting, and the research on its artificial cultivation is relatively insufficient, which has seriously affected the protection and utilization of its resources. Therefore, predicting the spatial changes of its potential suitable habitat is of great significance. The potential suitable habitat of P. kingianum in China was predicted by using Maxent model and geographic information system, combined with 63 valid distribution records in China and 15 environmental variables. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.971, indicating that the model had good predictive ability; the suitable habitat of P. kingianum was mainly concentrated in the southwest region of China, including Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing; annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest quarter, altitude and the lowest temperature in the coldest month played a key role in the geographical distribution of P. kingianum; in the future, the center of the suitable habitat of P. kingianum will gradually shift towards Guizhou. This would be provided a theoretical basis for the in-situ and ex-situ conservation of P. kingianum and the selection of artificial high-efficiency and high-quality cultivation bases, and has important practical significance for the protection and utilization of its germplasm resources.