基于最大熵模型的中国兜兰属植物潜在分布模拟

Simulation of Potential Distribution of Paphiopedilum in China Based on MaxEnt Model

摘要:

基于已知分布点和20个环境因子，该研究利用MaxEnt模型模拟在现在(1970—2000年)气候条件和2种不同共享经济路径情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP5-8.5)未来(2081—2100年)兜兰属(Paphiopedilum)植物的潜在分布格局，找出影响物种分布的环境因子。结果表明，兜兰属植物的最适宜分布区位于滇东南地区、贵州西南、广西西部、广东南部、海南北部。影响该属植物分布的主要环境因子是年降水量、年温度变化和最干旱季降水量。随着全球变暖，适生区有向北和西北方向扩张的趋势，逐渐往西北亚热带方向延伸。在SSP5-8.5的情景下，高适生区出现大幅度收缩。在未来气候情景下，不同种群的分布区变化规律并不一致，其分布格局响应气候变化的趋势也有所不同，因此该文针对分布区变化趋势不同的物种提出了不同的保护策略。

Abstract:

Based on the known distribution and 20 environmental factors, the potential distribution pattern of genus Paphiopedilum was simulated by using MaxEnt model under two different sharing economy scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the present (1970—2000) and the future (2081—2100). The contribution rate of climate factors was analyzed to find out the dominant climate factors affecting species distribution and their variation range. The results showed that the most suitable distribution areas of the genus were located in southeast Yunnan, southwest Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Guangdong and northern Hainan. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the genus were annual precipitation, annual temperature range and precipitation in the driest season. With global warming, the suitable area had a tendency to expand northward and northwestward, gradually extending to the northwest subtropical direction. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the high suitability area showed a large shrinkage. In the future climate scenarios, the distribution patterns of different populations are not consistent, and their distribution patterns respond to climate change trends. Therefore, different conservation strategies are proposed for species with different distribution trends.