全球气候变化下贵州省青冈林的潜在生境动态

Dynamics of Potential Distribution of Cyclobalanopsis Forest in Guizhou Province of China under Global Climate Change

摘要:

为了解贵州省青冈林在全球气候变化下的潜在分布特征，基于现状分布数据，结合当前气候数据和未来气候变化情景（RCP8.5情景，2070-2099年）构建Maxent潜在分布模型，预测贵州省青冈林的潜在分布变化。结果表明，最冷季均温（bio11）、最冷月最低温度（bio6）和年均降水量（bio12）为控制贵州省青冈林潜在生境的主导气候因子；RCP8.5情景下贵州省青冈林的潜在分布面积相较当前气候条件增加，中度适宜生境增加19 419 km²，高度适宜生境增加9 944 km²；中度适宜生境平均海拔较当前气候条件上升126 m，高度适宜生境平均上升85 m。总的来说，贵州省青冈林对全球气候变化的响应不十分敏感。

Abstract:

In order to understand the potential distribution characters of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province, based on the current distribution data, and combined with current climate data and future climate change scenario (RCP8.5 scenario, 2070-2099), the Maxent potential distribution modeling was established to predict the changes of potential distribution of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province. The results showed that the dominant climatic factors affecting its potential distribution were mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), min. temperature of the coldest month (bio6) and annual precipitation (bio12). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, potential habitat area of Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou would increase than that under current climatic conditions, there were 19 419 km² for moderate suitable habitat and 9 944 km² for high suitable habitat, respectively. The mean altitude of moderate suitable habitat would increase 126 m, and 85 m for high suitable habitat. In general, Cyclobalanopsis forest in Guizhou Province wouldn't be sensitive to the global climate change.