滇黄精的潜在分布与气候适宜性分析

Potential Geographical Distribution of Polygonatum kingianum and Its Climatic Suitability Analysis

摘要:

为了解滇黄精（Polygonatum kingianum）的适宜生长区，运用Maxent模型模拟其潜在分布区，探讨其引种栽培的适宜气候条件。结果表明，预测模型的AUC值为0.974~0.980，表明模型具有良好的预测能力。滇黄精主要适生区位于我国西南地区，适生面积约81.34×10⁴km²，占全国适生区面积的88.24%。云南的高度适生区面积最大（19.96×10⁴ km²）；四川次之（5.49×10⁴ km²）。75%的高度适生区分布于海拔2 492 m以下的地区，3 400 m以上的地区不适宜于滇黄精生长。最冷月最低温度、7月最低温度、5-8月太阳辐射、最干月降水量、4月和9-11月平均降水量是限制滇黄精分布的主要气候变量。因此，海拔1 400~2 100 m的亚热带地区是滇黄精最适宜的生长区。

关键词:滇黄精;潜在适生区;气候因子;Maxent模型

Abstract:

In order to understand the suitable distribution zone of Polygonatum kingianum, the potential geographic distribution of P. kingianum under current conditions in China was simulated by using Maxent model, and the suitable climatic condition for introduction and cultivation was anlayzed. The results showed that the AUC of prediction model ranged from 0.974 to 0.980, showing Maxent model had good predictive ability. The potential suitable distribution zone of P. kingianum was mainly located in Southwest China. The high suitable area was about 81.34×10⁴ km², accounting for 88.24% of distribution area in China. The largest high suitable region was in Yunnan with 19.96×10⁴ km², following Sichuan with 5.49×10⁴ km². The altitude distribution of 75% suitable region was under 2 492 m, and the altitude above 3 400 m was not suitable for growing of P. kingianum. Based on cumulative contribution rate of model and Jackknife analysis, the main climatic factors inhibiting the distribution of P. kingianum were minimum temperature of the coldest month, minimum temperature in July, solar radiation from March to August, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of April and precipitation from September to November. Therefore, it was suggested that subtropical zones with altitude from 1 400 to 2 100 m were the most suitable areas for P. kingianum.

Key words:Polygonatum kingianum;Potential suitable area;Climate factor;Maxent model