基于GIS与Maxent模型的金花茶潜在适生区与保护研究

Studies on Potential Suitable Growth Areas and Protection of Camellia nitidissima Based on GIS and Maxent Model

摘要:

为明确珍稀植物金花茶（Camellia nitidissima）的潜在分布，利用最大熵模型（Maxent）模拟金花茶在中国的潜在适生区，运用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析法进行验证。结果表明，金花茶的适生区域主要集中在我国西南片区，与已知原生地重合但不局限于已有报道的地点。ROC曲线分析法的面积AUC值为0.992，表明预测结果可靠。Jackknife检验表明，影响金花茶分布的最主要环境因子（阈值）是：年均温（24.3℃）、积温（7 515.84℃）、最干季湿度（14.5%）和最湿季均温（26.2℃）。缓冲区分析定量评价了人类活动对金花茶适生生境的干扰。这些有助于制定金花茶的保护规划。

Abstract:

In order to clear the potential distribution region of rare plant Camellia nitidissima, the Maxent model was used to simulate the potential suitable habitats of C. nitidissima in China based on its distribution data as well as combined with climate, elevation, land use types and other environmental data, and then it was verified by using the ROC curve analysis method. The results showed that the suitable growth area of C. nitidissima was mainly located in the southwest areas of China, which is coincident with the known native sites, but not limited to sites already reported. The AUC area was 0.992 by using ROC curve, indicating that the predicting results were reliability. The major environmental factors affected C. nitidissima distribution (threshold) by Jackknife test included the annual average temperature (24.3℃), accumulated temperature (7 515.84℃), humidity in the driest season (14.5%), and average temperature in the wettest season (26.2℃). The disturbance of human activities to the habitat of C. nitidissima was evaluated quantitatively by Buffer analysis. All of these would be helpful for setting out conservation planning of C. nitidissima.